The changing loyalties of Hispanic voters have also thrown a wrench in Republican efforts to gain five Democratic-held House seats by redrawing their districts, a calculation that had counted in part on GOP gains among Hispanics. But Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar (in the 28th district) and Vicente Gonzalez (in the 34th) are now favored to win, and a new Hispanic-majority district in San Antonio (the 35th) is a tossup.
That is presumably one reason Trump was in San Antonio Wednesday to stump for votes.
Watch: Michigan Senate, El-Sayed v. Rogers
With trouble in Senate races from Maine to Texas, Republicans figure their best shot at flipping a Democratic-held seat is in Michigan. In the primary, Democrats narrowly nominated progressive Abdul El-Sayed over the party establishment's centrist choice, Rep. Haley Stevens.
Now his campaign against former congressman Mike Rogers will test whether voters in a quintessential swing state − Michigan voted twice for Barack Obama, twice for Donald Trump − will embrace candidates from the left.
"We are here to break the map," New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a leader of the democratic socialist movement, said of the Michigan race at an Oct. 5 fundraiser in New York. "Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere."
That is probably political hyperbole, given the significant Arab and Muslim population in Michigan and the historic strength of the Democratic Party in the state, advantages that wouldn't be factors everywhere. If elected, El-Sayed would be the nation's first Muslim senator.
But the toss-up race is still a test. And in a sign of how crucial both parties view it, both are deploying their biggest guns. Trump is heading to the Wolverine State to campaign this month, and Obama will headline a get-out-the-vote rally in Detroit on Oct. 24.
That would be a week before Election Day.
Watch: Florida governor, Donalds v. Jolly
In the Florida governors' race, combined campaign spending on behalf of Republican Byron Donalds had totaled about $77 million by September.
That was nine times more − nine times − than the overall spending on behalf of Democrat David Jolly, about $8.2 million.
It's not clear whether Jolly, a former Republican congressman, can overcome such a yawning financial disadvantage. A new YouGov poll, released Oct. 6, had him nearly tied with Donalds, 47%-45%.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rankings in September moved the race from "likely Republican" to the more competitive "lean Republican," but not yet to the "toss-up" category.
At a rally in Tampa, Jolly was asked what it would take to win. "I need the national Democratic Party to come into Florida and start spending money," he replied.
Money doesn't buy votes, of course, but it does field get-out-the-vote operation and enable a candidate's partisans to flood the airwaves in the campaign's closing days.
Among the official party campaign committees, the GOP has reported raising about double the amount the Democratic ones have, $1.3 billion v. $613 million. Then there's the Trump-affiliated MAGA Inc. It had nearly $416 million in the bank in September, available to spend. That's the most of any super PAC in history.
"Republicans have the money, the candidates, and the message, and we're putting every dollar to work to defy history and expand this majority in November," Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, boasted when the group reported record-breaking fundraising.
Democratic nominees in some of the highest-profile Senate races have matched or even out-raised their Republican opponents. But in a half-dozen gubernatorial contests − including Georgia, Wisconsin and Texas as well as Florida − the Democrat is competitive in the polls but not when it comes to money in the bank.
That has complicated Democratic hopes of breaking some GOP trifectas − that is, states where Republicans hold the governorship and control both state legislative chambers, leaving Democrats nearly powerless. Those targets include Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Texas and elsewhere.
In Texas, Latino leaders pressured Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, to spend another $10 million on behalf of Gina Hinojosa, an unexpectedly strong challenger to incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott.
In an interview with USA TODAY, Beshear described the Democrats' dilemma. "To give an extra dollar one place, it comes from another," he said.
Watch: South Carolina Senate, Graham v. Andrews
When his Senate pal Lindsay Graham died, Trump pushed for the appointment of the senator's sister, Darline Graham, to temporarily fill the seat and then helped her win the contested Republican nomination, defeating a five-term Republican congressman. The president gave Graham his "Complete and Total Endorsement" and said he had asked her to run for the seat "For the Good of our Nation."
With the primary won, South Carolina is so overwhelmingly Republican that her victory in the general election would usually be considered a given.
Not this year, as it is turning out.
No other contest is such a personal test of Trump's clout.
Her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, trailed by a single point in recent surveys by Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage. A Rasmussen poll gave her a narrow 4-point lead.
In one sign of nervousness, the Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC for Republican Senate candidates, has now decided to spend $5 million on the race. In another, Trump unleashed an attack on Andrews, describing her three times in a Truth Social post with a slur for transgender people. (She is not transgender.)
"Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the highest, and Annie Trannie is not," he wrote.
His approval rating has softened in South Carolina, as elsewhere. On Oct. 6, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics moved its ranking of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican."
That is, still GOP-leaning. But no longer safe.
Watch: Kansas Senate, Marshall v. Hamilton
The last time a Democratic candidate won a Senate race in Kansas, Babe Ruth was playing for the New York Yankees.
And when Republican Roger Marshall was elected to the Senate six years ago, he swamped his Democratic opponent by double digits.
Despite that friendly political terrain, Marshall was just three points ahead of Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in a new You/Gov poll. Hamilton is the founder and senior pastor of the state's largest church, The Church of the Resurrection, in the Kansas City suburbs.
In July, the Cook rankings categorized the race as "Solid Republican," then in August moved it to "Likely Republican," then in September moved it to "Lean Republican."
On Oct. 6, the contest was moved to a "toss-up."
At their first debate, Marshall blasted Hamilton as "too woke and too weak" for the Sunflower State. But he drew jeers and boos from the crowd who had packed the bleachers at the Kansas State Fair when he defended his loyalty to Trump. "Look, these tariffs are working," he insisted.
"The current administration that Marshall supports is not normal," Hamilton replied.
Susan Page, the Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY (and a Kansas native), has covered the last 12 presidential elections.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: From El-Sayed to Talarico, 5 races and 5 keys to the midterms